MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM) MARKET WATCH - TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2025 OUTLOOK: THE BIST 100 INDEX STARTED MONDAY ON A SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TREND, REMAINED STABLE WITHIN A NARROW RANGE OF 11,244-11,334, AND CLOSED THE DAY AT 11,279.95, DOWN 0.07%. THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX ROSE 0.35%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX GAINED 0.70%. ACCORDING TO TURKSTAT DATA THE TURKISH ECONOMY GREW BY 4.8% IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF THE YEAR, EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS, COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. THE ABOVE-EXPECTATION GROWTH DATA HAD A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE BIST. WITH THE U.S. MARKETS CLOSED FOR LABOR DAY, EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS WERE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE ON MONDAY, WITH GLOBAL MARKETS FLAT TO POSITIVE. THIS MORNING, THE U.S. AND GERMAN DAX FUTURES FOLLOWED A FLATTER TREND, WHILE ASIAN STOCK MARKETS PAINTED A MIXED PICTURE. THE VIOP-30 OCTOBER FUTURES CONTRACT CLOSED THE EVENING SESSION UP 0.08%. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DOMESTIC MACRO DATA FLOW TODAY, MARKETS ARE FOCUSED ON LOCAL AUGUST INFLATION TO BE RELEASED TOMORROW. GLOBALLY, MANUFACTURING PMI DATA FROM THE U.S. AND THE EUROZONE CPI WILL BE WATCHED. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START TUESDAY FLAT AND THEN OBSERVE INTRADAY FLUCTUATION. SUPPORT: 11,100 - 11,000 RESISTANCE: 11,400 - 11,500. MONEY MARKET: THE LIRA WAS POSITIVE YESTERDAY, GAINING 0.09% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 41.1112. THE CURRENCY ALSO APPRECIATED BY 0.03% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE NEGATIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND WAS TRADED WITHIN A RANGE OF 31.27%-31.39%, ENDING THE DAY AT A HIGH OF 31.39%, 16 BPS ABOVE ITS PREVIOUS CLOSING. HEADLINES: THE TURKISH ECONOMY RECORDED ANNUAL GROWTH OF 4.8% AND QUARTERLY GROWTH OF 1.6% IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2025, DELIVERING A STRONG PERFORMANCE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS. CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT CONTRIBUTED POSITIVELY TO GROWTH, WHILE NET EXPORTS AND PUBLIC SPENDING EXERTED NEGATIVE PRESSURE… ACCORDING TO GROWTH DATA RELEASED BY TUIK, THE TURKISH ECONOMY GREW BY 4.8% IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF THE YEAR COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. (MARKET EXPECTATION WAS 3.8% AND SEKER INVEST EXPECTATION WAS 4%). THE SEASONALLY AND CALENDAR-ADJUSTED CHAINED VOLUME INDEX OF GDP INCREASED BY 1.6% COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS QUARTER. THE CALENDAR-ADJUSTED CHAINED VOLUME INDEX OF GDP INCREASED BY 4.6% IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2025 COMPARED TO THE SAME QUARTER OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR. THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ESTIMATE BASED ON THE PRODUCTION METHOD INCREASED BY 43.7% AT CURRENT PRICES IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2025 COMPARED TO THE SAME QUARTER OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR, REACHING TL 14 TRILLION 578 BILLION 556 MILLION. THE SECOND QUARTER VALUE OF GDP WAS 377 BILLION 622 MILLION IN US DOLLARS AT CURRENT PRICES. THE SHARE OF LABOR COMPENSATION IN GROSS VALUE ADDED AT CURRENT PRICES WAS 38.8% IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF LAST YEAR, WHILE THIS RATE WAS 38.4% IN 2025. THE SHARE OF NET OPERATING SURPLUS/MIXED INCOME WAS 39.5%, WHILE IT WAS 40.2% FOR THE RESPECTIVE PERIODS. WHEN THE ACTIVITIES THAT MAKE UP GDP ARE EXAMINED, IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2025, COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS YEAR, AS A CHAINED VOLUME INDEX THE TOTAL VALUE ADDED OF THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR WAS 10.9%, INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION ACTIVITIES 7.1%, THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 6.1%, TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, ACCOMMODATION, AND FOOD SERVICES 5.6%, PROFESSIONAL, ADMINISTRATIVE, AND SUPPORT SERVICES 5.4%, TAXES ON PRODUCTS MINUS SUBSIDIES 3.0%, FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES 2.6%, REAL ESTATE ACTIVITIES 2.6%, AND OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES 2.1%. THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR DECREASED BY 3.5%, WHILE PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, EDUCATION, HUMAN HEALTH, AND SOCIAL SERVICES ACTIVITIES DECREASED BY 1.2%. THE DEMAND COMPOSITION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED. IN PARTICULAR, THE CONTRIBUTION FROM PRODUCTION AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE CONTRIBUTION FROM SUPPLY AND PRODUCTION CAN BE SEEN AS NON-INFLATIONARY GROWTH. OTHERWISE, WE ARE ENTERING AN ECONOMIC SPIRAL OF CONSUMPTION-DRIVEN GROWTH THAT CREATES DEMAND AND INFLATION. THE PROCESS OF COORDINATION IN FISCAL POLICY CONTINUES. PUBLIC SPENDING HAS SLOWED DOWN NOTICEABLY AND CONTRIBUTED TO THE DISINFLATION PROCESS. IN OUR BUDGET REPORTS, WE HIGHLIGHTED THE IMPROVEMENT IN NON-INTEREST BUDGET ITEMS. THE ACTUAL FIGURES CONFIRM THIS. SECTOR NEWS: IN JULY, SECTOR NET PROFIT DECLINED BY 40% MOM, DRIVEN BY A SHARP CONTRACTION IN NET INTEREST INCOME AT STATE-DEPOSIT BANKS AND HIGHER FX LOSSES. ON A YEARLY BASIS, NET PROFIT RECORDED A STRONG 64% INCREASE. ACCORDING TO MONTHLY BRSA DATA, THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR`S NET PROFIT DECLINED BY 40% MOM IN JULY TO TRY 56.7BN, PRESSURED BY A SHARP CONTRACTION IN NET INTEREST INCOME AT STATE-DEPOSIT BANKS AND FX LOSSES RECORDED ACROSS THE SECTOR. ON A QUARTERLY BASIS, NET PROFIT INCREASED BY 19.3% WHEN COMPARING THE FIRST MONTH OF 3Q25 (JULY) WITH THE FIRST MONTH OF 2Q25 (APRIL). IN JULY, SECTOR PROFITABILITY WAS NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY WEAKER NET INTEREST INCOME AT STATE-DEPOSIT AND PARTICIPATION BANKS, ALONG WITH FX LOSSES ACROSS THE SECTOR (SWAP COSTS ARE INCLUDED IN THIS GROUP). THE DECLINE IN NET INTEREST INCOME WAS ALSO DRIVEN BY A 30% MOM DROP IN INTEREST INCOME FROM HELD-TO-MATURITY SECURITIES, AS HIGHER-YIELDING SECURITIES MATURED AND WERE REPLACED BY LOWER-YIELDING ONES. OPERATING EXPENSES ROSE BY 6.2% MOM TO TRY 104.5BN, WHILE NET FEE AND COMMISSION INCOME INCREASED BY 4.6% TO TRY 83.2BN. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE, EXPECTED CREDIT LOSSES DECLINED BY 7.8% MOM. MOREOVER, PRIVATE AND FOREIGN DEPOSIT BANKS RECORDED STRONG MONTHLY GROWTH IN NET INTEREST INCOME UNLIKE STATE-DEPOSIT BANKS. THE TL LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT SPREAD WIDENED BY 206 BPS MOM TO 3.2%, SUPPORTED BY LOWER FUNDING COSTS. HOWEVER, NIM CONTRACTED BY 79 BPS MOM TO 5.6%, PRESSURED BY A SHARP DROP IN TL SECURITIES YIELDS. FOREIGN DEPOSIT BANKS (GARANTI BELONGS TO THIS SEGMENT) OUTPERFORMED THE SECTOR IN JULY, RECORDING ONLY A 6% MOM DECLINE IN NET PROFIT, SUPPORTED BY STRONG GROWTH IN BOTH NET INTEREST INCOME AND FEE AND COMMISSION INCOME. IN CONTRAST, NET PROFIT FELL BY 61% MOM IN PRIVATE DEPOSIT BANKS AND BY 68% MOM IN STATE-DEPOSIT BANKS. SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR *** YASAL UYARI BURADA YER ALAN YATIRIM BILGI, YORUM VE TAVSIYELER YATIRIM DANISMANLIGI KAPSAMINDA DEGILDIR.YATIRIM DANISMANLIGI HIZMETI ARACI KURUMLAR, PORTFOY YONETIM SIRKETLERI, MEVDUAT KABUL ETMEYEN BANKALAR ILE MUSTERI ARASINDA IMZALANACAK YATIRIM DANISMANLIGI SOZLESMESI CERCEVESINDE SUNULMAKTADIR.BURADA YER ALAN YORUM VE TAVSIYELER, YORUM VE TAVSIYEDE BULUNANLARIN KISISEL GORUSLERINE DAYANMAKTADIR.BU GORUSLER MALI DURUMUNUZ ILE RISK VE GETIRI TERCIHLERINIZE UYGUN OLMAYABILIR.BU NEDENLE, SADECE BURADA YER ALAN BILGILERE DAYANILARAK YATIRIM KARARI VERILMESI BEKLENTILERINIZE UYGUN SONUCLAR DOGURMAYABILIR. 02.09.2025 09:23:32