MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM) MARKET WATCH - THURSDAY, MAY 7, 2026 OUTLOOK: THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED WEDNESDAY POSITIVELY, CONTINUING ITS UPTREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO SCALE A NEW RECORD HIGH IN TRY TERMS AT 15,043.57 POINTS. THE BENCHMARK INDEX CLOSED THE DAY AT 14,917.43, UP 2.91%. THE POSTPONEMENT OF THE CHP CONVENTION TRIAL TO JULY 1ST, THUS MITIGATING DOMESTIC POLITICAL RISK PERCEPTION IN THE SHORT TERM, AND THE NEW PEACE OFFER FROM THE U.S. TO IRAN, STRENGTHENING HOPES FOR A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION, LED TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RISK APPETITE IN THE MARKETS. ON THE SECTORAL INDICES SIDE, THE BANKING INDEX STOOD OUT POSITIVELY WITH A 4.42% GAIN, WHILE THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX CLOSED THE DAY WITH A 2.06% INCREASE. THE VIOP JUNE FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE NEAR-TERM INDEX ROSE BY 0.40% IN THE POSITIVE EVENING SESSION. ON A DAY WHEN RISK APPETITE REMAINED HIGH GLOBALLY, THE GERMAN DAX INDEX GAINED 2.12%, AND THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX ROSE 2.52% IN EUROPE, WHILE IN THE U.S. MARKETS THE DOW JONES INDEX INCREASED BY 1.24%, THE S&P 500 INDEX BY 1.46%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX BY 2.02%. AS DIPLOMATIC TALKS CONTINUE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN TO END THE WAR, WASHINGTON IS REPORTEDLY OFFERING A NEW AGREEMENT THAT INCLUDES THE GRADUAL REOPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE LIFTING OF BLOCKADES ON IRANIAN PORTS. WHILE A RESPONSE IS AWAITED FROM IRAN, ASSESSMENTS SUGGEST THAT SECURITY RISKS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAVE NOT BEEN COMPLETELY ELIMINATED DESPITE THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF NEW TRANSIT PROCEDURES. THIS MORNING, BRENT CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICES ARE HOVERING NEAR USD100, WHILE OPTIMISTIC PRICING IS EVIDENT IN GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS. POSITIVE PRICE MOVEMENTS ARE OBSERVED IN ASIAN STOCK MARKETS, AND IN JAPAN, WHERE MARKETS WERE CLOSED YESTERDAY, THE NIKKEI 225 INDEX IS TRADING WITH GAINS EXCEEDING 6%. IN FUTURES MARKETS, U.S. AND EUROPEAN FUTURES ARE SHOWING LIMITED POSITIVE PRICING. THE MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA FOR THE DAY INCLUDES, DOMESTICALLY, THE CBRT`S FX RESERVES, WEEKLY SECURITIES STATISTICS, AND WEEKLY MONEY AND BANKING STATISTICS AND GLOBALLY, THE U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA, IN ADDITION TO SPEECHES BY FED FOMC MEMBERS KASHKARI AND WILLIAMS. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START THURSDAY WITH LIMITED POSITIVE GAINS, AND TO CONTINUE ITS UPTREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IF PROFIT-TAKING IS ABSORBED. SUPPORT: 14,650 - 14,550 RESISTANCE: 15,150 - 15,250. MONEY MARKET: THE LIRA WAS POSITIVE YESTERDAY, GAINING 0.01% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 45.2112. THE CURRENCY ALSO DEPRECIATED BY 0.21% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE POSITIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND YIELD FLUCTUATED WITHIN A RANGE OF 33.00%-33.95%, CLOSING THE DAY AT 33.51%, DOWN 82 BPS FROM THE PREVIOUS CLOSE. COMPANY NEWS: PETKIM (PETKM.TI MP) HAS REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TRY 306 MN IN 1Q26. THE REPORTED NET PROFIT EXCEEDED BOTH OUR ESTIMATE AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION. EBITDA CAME IN AT TRY 163 MN IN 1Q26. THE REPORTED FIGURE WAS ABOVE OUR ESTIMATE, WHILE REMAINING BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION. PETKIM REPORTED TRY 26,995 MN IN QUARTERLY NET SALES, ABOVE BOTH OUR ESTIMATE AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION. SABANCI HOLDING (SAHOL.TI OP) HAS REPORTED A TRY 318MN CONSOLIDATED NET PROFIT IN 1Q26 (NON-BANK: TRY 111MN NET PROFIT), ACCORDING TO ITS INFLATION-ADJUSTED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL RESULTS (INCLUDING THE EFFECTS OF TAS 29). IN THE SAME PERIOD OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR, THE COMPANY HAD REPORTED A TRY 3,847MN CONSOLIDATED NET LOSS (NON-BANK: TRY 3,043MN NET LOSS). THE COMPANY`S CONSOLIDATED REVENUES DECLINED BY 11.1% YEAR-ON-YEAR TO TRY 291,427MN IN 1Q26 (1Q25: TRY 327,968MN). OF THE TOTAL CONSOLIDATED REVENUES, TRY 212,175MN WAS GENERATED FROM THE BANKING SEGMENT (1Q25: TRY 245,511MN), WHILE TRY 83,885MN WAS GENERATED FROM NON-BANK BUSINESS SEGMENTS (1Q25: TRY 85,956MN). EBITDA INCREASED BY 14.9% YEAR-ON-YEAR TO TRY 36,148MN (1Q25: TRY 31,458MN). TUPRAS (TUPRS.TI OP) HAS REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TRY 3,710 MN IN 1Q26. THIS FIGURE IS 8% ABOVE OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 3,439 MN, WHILE IT CAME IN 3% BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 3,808 MN. THE COMPANY`S EBITDA CAME IN AT TRY 15,796 MN, BROADLY IN LINE WITH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 15,794 MN, WHILE IT WAS 4% BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 16,392 MN. TUPRAS REPORTED TRY 258,254 MN IN NET SALES IN 1Q26. THIS FIGURE IS 7% ABOVE OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 241,719 MN, AND 9% ABOVE THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 237,820 MN. TURK TELEKOM (TTKOM.TI OP) REPORTED A NET INCOME OF TRY 10,457MN IN 1Q26 UNDER INFLATION ACCOUNTING (IAS 29 ADJUSTED FINANCIALS), COMPARED TO TRY 6,719MN IN 1Q25. THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION WAS TRY 6,188MN, WHILE OUR ESTIMATE POINTED TO A NET INCOME OF TRY 5,800MN. A HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED MONETARY GAIN POSITION WAS THE MAIN REASON BEHIND THE DEVIATION FROM OUR FORECAST IN 1Q26. NET FINANCIAL EXPENSES AND TAX EXPENSES, HOWEVER, WEIGHED ON BOTTOM-LINE PROFITABILITY DURING THE QUARTER. THE COMPANY`S IAS 29-ADJUSTED REVENUES INCREASED BY 8.7% YOY TO TRY 64,858MN IN 1Q26, IN LINE WITH BOTH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 64,445MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 64,393MN (1Q25: TRY 59,671MN). FIXED BROADBAND AND CORPORATE DATA REVENUES LED TOP-LINE GROWTH, WHILE THE STRONG INCREASE IN IT SOLUTIONS REVENUES ALSO SUPPORTED PERFORMANCE. EXCLUDING THE IFRIC 12 ACCOUNTING IMPACT, 1Q26 REVENUES INCREASED BY 5.9% YOY TO TRY 61.2BN. FIXED BROADBAND REVENUES GREW BY 17.8% YOY, TV REVENUES BY 15%, AND CORPORATE DATA REVENUES BY 28.1%, WHILE INTERNATIONAL REVENUES DECLINED BY 27.5% DUE TO WEAKER INTERNATIONAL VOICE REVENUES. MOBILE, FIXED VOICE AND OTHER REVENUES REMAINED BROADLY FLAT ON A YEARLY BASIS. ON THE SUBSCRIBER SIDE, TURK TELEKOM ADDED 613 THOUSAND NET SUBSCRIBERS IN 1Q26, REACHING A TOTAL SUBSCRIBER BASE OF 57.2 MILLION. EXCLUDING THE 163 THOUSAND NET SUBSCRIBER LOSS IN THE FIXED VOICE SEGMENT, TOTAL NET SUBSCRIBER ADDITIONS REACHED 776 THOUSAND DURING THE QUARTER DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK SEASONALITY OF THE FIRST QUARTER. FIXED BROADBAND SUBSCRIBER GROWTH REMAINED ROBUST IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2026. THE COMPANY`S FOCUS ON HIGH-SPEED TARIFFS CONTINUED TO BE A KEY DRIVER OF ARPU GROWTH. PACKAGES WITH SPEEDS OF 50 MBPS AND ABOVE ACCOUNTED FOR 66% OF THE SUBSCRIBER BASE, AND DESPITE THE HIGH BASE EFFECT FROM THE SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR, ARPU INCREASED STRONGLY BY 17.7% YOY, SUPPORTING A 17.8% INCREASE IN FIXED BROADBAND REVENUES. EFFECTIVE COST MANAGEMENT SUPPORTED OPERATIONAL PROFITABILITY. IAS 29-ADJUSTED EBITDA INCREASED BY 17.4% YOY TO TRY 27,298MN IN 1Q26, SLIGHTLY ABOVE BOTH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 26,745MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 26,606MN. THE EBITDA MARGIN IMPROVED TO 42.1% IN 1Q26 (1Q25: 39.0%). THE COMPANY`S NET DEBT POSITION INCREASED. NET DEBT ROSE FROM TRY 63.8BN AT THE END OF 2025 TO TRY 111.5BN AS OF 03/2026. THE NET DEBT/EBITDA RATIO INCREASED MODERATELY FROM 0.60X IN THE PREVIOUS QUARTER TO 0.99X IN 1Q26, MAINLY DUE TO CONCESSION AND 5G LICENSE-RELATED PAYMENTS. VAKIFBANK (VAKBN.TI OP) HAS REPORTED TRY 15.0 BILLION IN NET INCOME FOR 1Q26, BROADLY IN LINE WITH BOTH OUR ESTIMATE AND THE MARKET CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, NET PROFIT DECLINED BY 46% QOQ AND 25% YOY, MAINLY DUE TO A SHARP CONTRACTION IN CPI-LINKERS INCOME AND A HIGH BASE EFFECT. ACCORDINGLY, THE BANK`S RETURN ON EQUITY FELL TO 18.4% FROM 38.4% IN 4Q25. THE MAIN DRIVER BEHIND THE EARNINGS DECLINE WAS THE 55% QOQ DROP IN CPI-LINKERS INCOME. IN 4Q25, THE YEAR-END REVISION OF CPI ASSUMPTIONS LED TO A ONE-OFF INCOME BOOST, CREATING A HIGH BASE AND RESULTING IN WEAKER PROFITABILITY IN THIS QUARTER. INCLUDING SWAP COSTS, NET INTEREST INCOME DECLINED BY 19.7% QOQ TO TRY 48.5 BILLION. YET, EXCLUDING CPI-LINKERS, THE BANK POSTED A STRONG RECOVERY IN CORE NET INTEREST INCOME, WHICH INCREASED BY 34% QOQ TO TRY 32 BILLION. DESPITE THIS IMPROVEMENT, THE SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST MARGIN FELL FROM 5.0% TO 3.8%. EXCLUDING THE CPI-LINKERS EFFECT, WE CALCULATE A CORE NET INTEREST MARGIN IMPROVEMENT OF APPROXIMATELY 58 BASIS POINTS QOQ. ON THE ASSET QUALITY SIDE, THE NPL RATIO INCREASED BY 23 BPS QOQ TO 3.11%, WHILE NET PROVISIONING EXPENSES ROSE BY 42% QOQ TO TRY 12.5 BILLION, BECOMING ANOTHER KEY FACTOR WEIGHING ON PROFITABILITY. AS A RESULT, THE BANK`S NET COST OF RISK INCREASED TO 155 BPS. SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR *** YASAL UYARI BURADA YER ALAN YATIRIM BILGI, YORUM VE TAVSIYELER YATIRIM DANISMANLIGI KAPSAMINDA DEGILDIR.YATIRIM DANISMANLIGI HIZMETI ARACI KURUMLAR, PORTFOY YONETIM SIRKETLERI, MEVDUAT KABUL ETMEYEN BANKALAR ILE MUSTERI ARASINDA IMZALANACAK YATIRIM DANISMANLIGI SOZLESMESI CERCEVESINDE SUNULMAKTADIR.BURADA YER ALAN YORUM VE TAVSIYELER, YORUM VE TAVSIYEDE BULUNANLARIN KISISEL GORUSLERINE DAYANMAKTADIR.BU GORUSLER MALI DURUMUNUZ ILE RISK VE GETIRI TERCIHLERINIZE UYGUN OLMAYABILIR.BU NEDENLE, SADECE BURADA YER ALAN BILGILERE DAYANILARAK YATIRIM KARARI VERILMESI BEKLENTILERINIZE UYGUN SONUCLAR DOGURMAYABILIR. 07.05.2026 09:43:01